Back to Anarchy? The rebirth of global power politics

After the Cold War, the US was dominant on the world scene, militarily, economically and ideologically. ‘Dog-eat-dog’ geopolitics was replaced by the ‘Rules Based World Order’, whereby international business was conducted through multilateral negotiation and the application of international law. Political confrontation was replaced - in principle - by the joint pursuit of globalisation and the solution of common problems such as climate change. We are now seeing the chaotic breakup of that order. The US has lost interest in maintaining it; rival powers (notably China and Russia) now challenge US hegemony; and war is firmly back on the international agenda. How has this come about, and what next? This is a 10-session course and must be taken with W210Am01 in Week 2.

Aims 

This course aims to: 

• familiarise you with the big geopolitical challenges facing the world today   
• familiarise you with the shape and working of the international system   
• look at the rise of challengers to the current world order, and how it is likely to evolve in response. 

Course content 

The world has long been an arena where strong states preyed upon weak ones and war was the habitual way of settling disputes. But, as economic interdependence has grown and war has become more destructive, there have been intensifying efforts to find a less Darwinian, more rules based, way of managing world affairs. These efforts culminated after the end of the Cold War with a global system dominated by the United States and, at least notionally, acting on the basis of multinational agreements, international law and the hope that universal democracy would bring universal peace. That system is now breaking down. Democracy and human rights are on the defensive. Rival powers - notably Russia and China - have begun to challenge US hegemony. Great Power war may be coming back e.g. in Ukraine or Taiwan. And cooperation to tackle overarching global threats such as nuclear proliferation and climate change is visibly under stress. This course looks at these developments and asks where we may be going. 

What to expect on this course 

The course will comprise illustrated lectures and classroom discussion. There are likely to be students of a wide variety of nationalities - European, American, Chinese, Australian and more. The intention is that everyone should be ready to respond from their own national experience to the lecturer's ideas, correct him where necessary, and leave all participants with a richer understanding of the complications of, as well as the possibilities for, finding international accord in today's increasingly conflicted world. 

Course sessions 

1. The evolution of the current world order 
   We look at how the international system has evolved from dog-eat-dog Machiavellianism towards a more multilateral, cooperative, rules-based, approach and the challenges that are now emerging. 
    
2. The United States: Dangerous Nation 
   Through its 250 year history the US has risen from marginality to a dominant place in global affairs with a firm conviction of its role as global leader. Why, and how well has it done? 
    
3. Sharing the cage with an angry Bear; Russia  
   Russia’s discomfort with the US dominated world order has now exploded into the Ukraine war. Why? And where are we going?  
    
4. The Eastern Dragon revived; China 
   Undoubtedly the key challenge to US dominance over forthcoming decades is the vertiginous rise of China. Where is this leading us?  
    
5. The World’s Badlands: The Middle East 
   The Middle East is the focus of many of the world’s conflicts and challenges; from Islamic Fundamentalism through sectarian hatred to oil wars and nuclear proliferation. What can be done? 
    
6. Europe: Proud Continent Fallen on Hard Times
   For over 400 years Europe led the world scientifically, economically and politically. Its influence is now visibly fading. Why, and what happens next? 
    
7. Catastrophe (so far) avoided; the Bomb 
   No nuclear weapon has been used in anger since 1945. An impressive record, but given proliferation pressures and new international tensions is it sustainable?  
    
8. Climate change; the Planet United?  
   The biggest challenge facing mankind, demanding a united global response, is human induced climate change. How well are we dealing with it?  
    
9. The Better Angels of our Nature: Democracy and Human Rights 
   The rise of democracy and attention to the protection of human rights have been central to the rules-based order. How successful have we been? 
    
10. The end of the American Empire?  
    Since the end of the Cold War, the US has exercised global power on a scale unmatched since, probably, the days of Rome. And the rules-based order has largely depended on that power. As alternative powers, notably China, rise what are the prospects for global order going forward?  

Learning outcomes 

As a result of the course, you will gain a greater understanding of the subject and you should be able to: 

• understand the big forces driving the evolution of world politics over the next   
  few years    
• place international political developments in context and judge the likely implications for your own nation and community    
• bring an informed understanding of the state of the world to your own public and private involvements  

Required reading 

There are no compulsory readings for this course. However, the main way to derive the most benefit from this course is to be as up to date as possible with international events and intelligent commentary on them. The sources on which I most rely are the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Economist, the Carnegie and Project Syndicate websites and (first class if you can lay your hands on it) Foreign Affairs magazine. You will of course have your own preferences.